Authors: Caitlyn Andrus, Anabelle Myers, Brittany Fager, Izzy Hinton, Michael Jaquez, David Rosenberg, Erik Porse
Title: Improving NOAA tools to communicate and manage risks of water shortages
Presentation Type: Poster Presentation
Abstract: Increasingly low and volatile Colorado River flows make it difficult to manage Lake Mead and coordinate among Lower Basin users. Current tools for managing risks of water shortages cannot easily adapt strategies in response to changing hydrologic conditions and real-time discussion of choices. Our project addresses these challenges through immersive, collaborative model sessions that allow participants to adjust strategies in response to low storage, low and volatile inflow, and the choices of other users. Participants immerse in and personify water-user roles within a Lake Mead model based on the principle of divided reservoir inflow. The modeling process divides reservoir inflow, subtracts evaporation, and then allows users to withdraw, conserve, and trade water within their available supply. We see uses for this tool to improve NOAA communication and management of water-shortage risk, better understand how users make assumptions and respond to uncertainty, and explore how participants articulate and manage vulnerability under uncertain future water-supply conditions. The sessions are also intended to provoke discussion on stabilizing and recovering reservoir storage under low-storage, low-inflow conditions while giving users greater autonomy to manage competing vulnerabilities to water shortages. In these sessions, we have found that users can collaboratively develop and test strategies that help stabilize Lake Mead storage under arid conditions.