Authors: Katie van Werkhoven – RTI International Schuyler DeBree (RTI), Hannah Lohman (RTI), Yu-FenHuang (UHM), Yinphan Tsang (UHM), Mirce Morales Velazquez (UVM), Beverley Wemple (UVM)
Title: Pathways to improve the effectiveness of flash flood forecasts in mountain regions
Presentation Type: Lightning Talk
Abstract: Flash floods are often triggered by highly uncertain meteorological conditions and can develop within minutes to hours, creating significant challenges for both forecasting and emergency response. As part of this FY25 project, RTI, the University of Vermont and the University of Hawaii at Manoa seek to identify key factors that limit the effectiveness of flash flood forecasts and to develop strategies to enhance guidance for operational decision-making. In one branch of the project, we are investigating what will help by working directly with forecasters and emergency responders in Western North Carolina, Vermont, and Hawaii to document the information they rely on, the constraints they face, and the areas where improved forecast guidance would have the greatest impact. In parallel, we are investigating what is feasible by executing hindcasting workflows to better understand which components of the flash flood forecasting process constrain operational usefulness and test alternative approaches. In this lightning talk, I will provide a brief update on project progress and insights to date, and an overview of where we are headed.