Authors: Corinne Schuster-Wallace – University of Saskatchewan
Title: Detection, Classification, and Characterization of Compound Coastal Flooding along the Gulf and Southeastern U.S. Coasts
Presentation Type: Poster Presentation
Abstract: Hydrometeorological forecasts are important for flood and drought preparedness, but forecasts alone do not fully explain who can act, who is affected, and why impacts differ across communities, institutions, and sectors. This project develops a coupled human-water systems conceptual framework to support impact-based forecasting models by foregrounding households, organizations, institutions, and infrastructure systems as adaptive agents whose decisions shape flood and drought outcomes. Through literature reviews and transdisciplinary technical discussions, the Think Tank mapped forecast-to-decision-response pathways, developed agent-step boundary tables for key flood and drought agents, and structured causal loop diagrams to identify feedback loops among warnings, trust, resources, actions, impacts, recovery, and learning. The framework translates qualitative social and institutional processes into model-ready components, including agent roles, state variables, decision rules, constraints, resources, interactions, and potential validation data. These activities provide a conceptual and computational foundation for linking social models with hydrologic forecasting systems, including agent-based modeling and large language model-supported analysis. The resulting approach supports NextGen-ready tools that move beyond predicting hazards toward anticipating decisions, disruptions, unmet needs, and recovery pathways.