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Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology

Theory and Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for Extreme Event Hydrometry

Theory and Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for Extreme Event Hydrometry

Day 3 Session 2 (0:00AM)

Presenters:

Mohamed Abdelkader, University of Iowa
Marian Muste, University of Iowa

This workshop provides an introduction to the theory and practical implementation of Uncertainty Analysis (UA) in hydraulic measurements and hydrometric applications, with emphasis on how uncertainty in observed hydrological variables propagates into hydrological model calibration and validation.

Workshop Slides

Participants will explore:

  • Terminology and Concepts of uncertainty analysis, including accuracy, error, bias, precision, confidence levels, and probability distributions commonly used in hydrology.
    • Uncertainty Analysis Frameworks, with an overview of standardized approaches and their relevance to hydrometric measurements used as inputs to hydrological models.
    • GUM Implementation Methodology, based on the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), including Data Reduction Equations (DREs) and sensitivity coefficients.
    • GUM Implementation Examples, demonstrating how uncertainty propagates through measured hydrological variables such as discharge and water level, and how to quantify the uncertainty budget and confidence intervals.

Learning Outcomes:

  • Understand the theoretical foundations of uncertainty analysis applied to hydraulic and hydrometric measurements.
  • Learn how to identify, classify, and quantify uncertainty types in real measurement scenarios.
  • Apply GUM methodology to compute combined and expanded uncertainties for key hydrological input variables.
  • Interpret uncertainty budgets and assess how measurement uncertainty influences hydrological model calibration, validation, and prediction reliability.

Prerequisites:

  • HydroShare account
  • Access to CIROH-2i2c JupyterHub (via HydroShare)
  • No prior experience with uncertainty analysis is required.
  • Basic familiarity with hydraulics or fluid measurements is helpful but not necessary.

Additional Details:

Hydrological models are commonly calibrated and validated using in-situ hydrometric observations that are often treated as “ground truth.” This workshop equips participants with fundamental knowledge of measurement uncertainty in key hydrological variables, enabling more informed interpretation of model performance metrics, benchmarking datasets, and predictive uncertainty, particularly for extreme event applications.

References:

  • Aschwanden, C., Reed, S., & Cepero, K. (2009). Inundation mapping using hydraulic models and GIS: case studies of steady and unsteady models on the Tar River, NC. In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2009: Great Rivers (pp. 1-10).
  • McMillan, H., Freer, J., Pappenberger, F., Krueger, T., & Clark, M. (2010). Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 24(10), 1270-1284.
  • Merwade, V., Olivera, F., Arabi, M., & Edleman, S. (2008). Uncertainty in flood inundation mapping: Current issues and future directions. Journal of hydrologic engineering, 13(7), 608-620.