Empaneled focus groups to determine how end users respond to visual cues of forecast products

Objective:

This research addresses the challenge of making NOAA’s water and climate data products—like the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS), Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM), and ATLAS 14/15—more usable and understandable for all people - or end users - who seek to use critical weather and flood risk information. These tools were often developed with technical users in mind, limiting their broader impact and effectiveness in real-world decision-making. To address this, our team applied a mix of user-centered design, stakeholder engagement, and social science methods to improve communication strategies and visual designs. This analysis synthesized findings across NOAA and academic research to identify what works—and what doesn’t—in designing tools that actually meet user needs. The insights were translated into replicable policy memos and frameworks that NOAA and CIROH partners can apply across other products. The intended products of the research include: A visual diagnostics guide that informed major improvements to NWPS before its national launch. A design memo and recommendations to support the early development of ATLAS 14/15. Strategic communication frameworks like the Information Supply Chain and a Theory of Change for Improved Forecast Services to guide NOAA’s long-term outreach and engagement efforts. A meta-analysis report synthesizing communication best practices to inform risk communication strategies across NWS and NOAA. These outputs advance CIROH’s goals by improving operational products, supporting policy implementation, and deepening community engagement. The work not only enhances the effectiveness of federal climate and water tools—it helps build public trust and resilience in all communities impacted by extreme weather.

Approach:

This project uses a mixed-methods, user-centered research strategy to evaluate and improve NOAA’s water and climate products for all communities. The plan includes five key components:

1. Landscape Analysis: We begin with a comprehensive assessment of NOAA’s hydrologic tools (e.g., NWPS, FIM, AHPS, ATLAS 14) and academic sources to identify replicable design and communication strategies.

2. Diagnostic Testing: We apply visual diagnostics (e.g., the Dasgupta et al. taxonomy) and usability testing to identify opportunities for improvements to accessibility, interpretation, and usability of NOAA tools. This helps anticipate and address visual and design issues—especially in products like NWPS and the forthcoming ATLAS 15.

3. Stakeholder Engagement: We conduct focus groups and interviews with key intermediaries—WCMs, SCHs, and emergency managers—to understand communication strategies and gaps in disseminating flood and drought information.

4. Meta-Analysis: Building on insights from stakeholder engagement, we conduct a broader meta-analysis of existing best practices from other fields, such as public health, to identify effective strategies in risk communication.

5. Co-Production and Translation: Insights are synthesized into technical memos and prototypes shared with NOAA partners (e.g., OWP), culminating in actionable design, policy, and outreach recommendations that improve operational readiness and decision support service delivery.

These strategies advance readiness from early-stage (RL2) to operational deployment (RL7) and contribute to CIROH’s mission of actionable science for societal benefit.

Impact:

Abstract:

This project evaluates and improves how NOAA’s water and climate tools are presented to end-users. End users can struggle with the correct interpretation of data products due to design complexity, limited stakeholder engagement, and mismatched communication strategies. This project addresses these gaps directly by diagnosing design challenges and centering on the needs of end-users. By combining social science methods with user-centered design, the project addresses gaps in how products like the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS), Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM), the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS), and ATLAS 14/15 communicate risk and support decision-making.

The project is likely to produce:
A visual diagnostic and usability testing report identifying opportunities to improve design and interpretation of data and decision products in NWPS, FIM, AHPS, and ATLAS products.
A replicable framework for mapping climate communication pathways and identifying leverage points to effectively engage all communities, supported by a theory of change outlining strategies for impact.
A meta-analysis of risk communication best practices from public health, emergency management, and climate services literature.
Stakeholder-informed design prototypes and technical memos that offer actionable improvements for NOAA’s products and policies.

How this project improves on current practice:
Today, design decisions are often made without systematic input from frontline users (e.g., emergency managers, community leaders). Tools are complex, making it difficult for non-technical end-users to correctly translate them for preparedness and planning purposes.
This project will embed stakeholder feedback and social science into NOAA product design, offer visual diagnostics that preemptively identify opportunities to improve accessibility and usability, and translate findings into design improvements and policy recommendations that promote decision support service delivery.

Impact:
This work will enhance the clarity and impact of NOAA’s climate information services, thereby increasing the opportunity for all Americans to understand risks and take timely action. It will also strengthen public trust in federal data tools and provide NOAA with a tested pathway for comprehensive, science-based communication design.