Enhanced Forecast Design Through Experimental Gaming and Social Impact Assessment of Connected River and Floodplains

Objective:

Three Regional Impact-Based Focus Groups (March 2023, September 2023 and February 2024) completed. A fourth Regional Impact-Based Focus group designed for October 2nd, 2024.

Abstract:

Extreme water hazard events are increasing in magnitude and frequency, putting
individuals, communities and emergency responders at risk, and forcing people to quickly
decide how to respond, what information to use and communicate. Our overarching goal is to
understand human behavioral aspects associated with current NOAA and National Water Model
products that are related to flood water hazards. Our objectives are to better understand flood
hazard mitigation and response behaviors to allow for optimization of communication strategies
that will allow for more resilient communities, build trust in NOAA products, and help protect
infrastructure and lives. Goal 1: Broaden capacity for forecast design by improving the ability of
first responders to understand how forecasts will be understood and used by individuals and
communities and by providing insights to inform longer-term community planning. The pursuit
of this goal provides a significant contribution to CIROH’s efforts to advance social, economic,
and behavioral science to improve water prediction and forecast uses. Goal 2: Contribute to the
development of the CIROH Enhanced Forecast Design Center by evolving forecast platforms that
consider the heterogeneity of risk perception and behavior, and decision heuristics relative to
water hazard mitigation that may be integrated into National Water Model products. Objective
1: Gauge public awareness and uses of water hazard forecasting products, including factors
impacting variability of risk perception and efficacy of risk communication. Objective 2: Create a
platform to test changes to risk perception and communication resulting from alternative
forecast design parameters and treatments through a modular experimental gaming platform.
Objective 3: Improve integration between stakeholder input and forecast design using
representative regional empaneled focus groups. Objective 4: Integrate river and floodplain
connectivity to better estimate social impacts and costs using an ecosystem services framework.
Accomplishing these goals and objectives will provide actionable, impact-based decision
support to NOAA and CIROH scientists that will enhance our ability to develop effective
communication strategies, enhance information transfer and understand barriers and
opportunities associated with use of National Water Model products.