Authors: Iman Maghami, Easton Perkins, Jacob Anderson, Jerson Garcia, Roja Najafi, Daniel P. Ames – Brigham Young University
Title: Preliminary Results of a Multi-Year Multi-Region Analysis of Flood Timing, Magnitude and Severity Using the National Water Model
Abstract: Extreme short-duration rainfall events have been causing catastrophic floods leading to property and infrastructure damage, and human loss in particular in urbanized and densely populated regions. Real-time flood forecasts enable decision makers to take timely actions to prevent or at least reduce the loss and damage caused by such events. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Water Model (NWM) has been operational since August 2016 and produces real-time continuous hydrologic forecasts for the continental United States (CONUS). A growing body of research has been paying attention to this model. Although a few studies have started exploring the NWM’s utility in flood predictions, none, to our knowledge, have investigated its performance across multiple regions. The objective of this study, therefore, is to assess the utility of the NWM operational version (version 1.2) in predicting floods caused by heavy short-duration rainfall events across multiple regions and scales considering different forecast configurations (i.e., short-range, medium-range, and long-range) and lead times. To evaluate the NWM model’s performance, the NWM streamflow forecasts are compared to observational streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The study analyzes the performance of the NWM forecasts under various temporal (i.e., whether it is best under certain time periods, seasons, lead times, and forecast configurations) and spatial conditions (i.e., whether it is best for specific regions or scales). We will present preliminary results of this study and discuss opportunities to use these results to enhance interpretation and application of the NWM forecasts in operational flood management.