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Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology

CIROH Training and Developers Conference 2026 Abstract

Authors:   Yi Hong – NOAA National Ocean Service  

Title: Towards a better development and application of the National Water Model in support of transboundary water prediction in the Laurentian Great Lakes region 

Presentation Type: Lightning Talk 

Abstract:  The National Water Model (NWM), developed by NOAA, offers high-resolution hydrological modeling for the continental U.S. However, its performance in large transboundary regions, such as the Great Lakes basin, has not been thoroughly investigated. This study assesses the ability of NWM v2.1 and V3.1 to predict streamflow and total runoff in the bi-national Great Lakes region. While the NWM demonstrates moderate to good performance for many U.S. sub-catchments, it exhibits limitations for Canadian sub-catchments, particularly in long-range forecasts (LRF). Additionally, the NWM consistently underestimates total runoff for most lakes, especially Lake Superior, indicating the necessity for improvements in simulating water balance, particularly in ungauged regions.