Authors: Mohamed Abdelkader, Marouane Temimi, Jorge Bravo, Muhammad S. Mehboob – Stevens Institute of Technology
Title: Investigating river ice climatology using in situ and remote sensing observations to support operational streamflow forecast using the NWM
Abstract: The goal of this study is to infer information on river ice formation and breakup to a) study their climatology and identify precursors that control their occurrences, and b) infer relationships to assess the likelihood of ice jam formation and breakup to support operational streamflow forecast. This study leverages the automated river ice remote sensing system that is used to map ice conditions in rivers across the United States using multi-satellite images. In particular, we propose an automated algorithm for detecting river ice formation and breakup, which enables capturing the temporal patterns of river ice at large scales. Moreover, we analyze the river ice records from two sources, namely, the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) database and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gauging stations, spanning from 1985 to 2022. Our findings demonstrate a significant negative trend in ice duration, with an overall shift towards earlier breakups. Additionally, we observe an increasing trend in peak discharge during the breakup period. Furthermore, we assess the influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on ice duration and peak discharge during the breakup phase. Our results reveal a strong coherence between ENSO indices and ice formation and breakup dates, with higher streamflow observed during ice breakups in the El Nino phase. These results have significant implications for operational streamflow forecasting, as they provide valuable information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of river ice cover, which is critical for understanding and managing the risks associated with ice jam formation.