Authors: Josh Sturtevant – Colorado School of Mines
Title: A Community Protocol for Short-Range Streamflow Forecast Evaluation across CONUS Headwater Catchments: Examples from the CIROH Hydrologic Prediction Testbed
Presentation Type: Poster
Abstract: The CIROH Hydrologic Prediction Testbed (CHPT) is a community-oriented CIROH initiative led by the Colorado School of Mines to establish rigorous, quantitative intercomparison and benchmarking of US operational hydrologic forecasts. CHPT consists of standardized experimental protocols for evaluating and benchmarking innovations in different forecast-related capabilities, including short-range deterministic and ensemble streamflow forecasting for flood prediction. Each Testbed protocol contains universal elements describing standardized experiments, benchmarks, and evaluation, targeting different forecasting and sub-component objectives.
Here, we present the CHPT protocol for short to medium-range streamflow forecasts (3-7 days), including a discussion of key protocol elements such as experimental design (e.g., study basins and period), verification metrics, operational reference capabilities, and how researchers can engage with CHPT to submit novel innovations. Experiments focus on active streamflow forecast points from the NWS River Forecast Centers and the US National Water Model co-located with CAMELS basins. Finally, we highlight how NOAA’s Next Generation Water Resources Modeling framework facilitates model intercomparisons and how benchmarking practices and formal testbeds foster operationalization of research driving advancements in hydrologic prediction.