Authors: Mohamed Abdelkader, Marouane Temimi, Jorge Humberto Bravo Mendez – Stevens Institute of Technology
Title: A Framework for Forecasting Streamflow Temperature and Ice Phenology Utilizing the NOAA National Water Model
Abstract: The goal of this study is to develop an integrated system capable of forecasting streamflow temperature and ice phenology using the NOAA National Water Model (NWM). This study employs the one-dimensional River Basin Model (RBM), a semi-Lagrangian water temperature model, to simulate stream temperatures. The RBM utilizes both medium-range streamflow forecasts from the NWM and meteorological data from the Global Forecasting System (GFS), to estimate stream temperatures along river networks. We will present an assessment of the accuracy of ice condition simulations in the upper Connecticut River Basin, which have been validated using satellite observations of river ice extent and corroborated with observational data from the USGS. Preliminary results showed the reliability of the integrated RBM and NWM approach in capturing the dynamics of river ice. Furthermore, we will demonstrate the application of these simulations in predicting river ice formation and breakup, which are critical for managing water resources and mitigating risks associated with river ice dynamics. Additionally, we will showcase an automated approach to disseminate forecast information and visualize ice conditions leveraging the NHDPlus dataset. This study sets the stage for future enhancements in forecasting capabilities and the strategic management of water resources across scales.