Authors: Chris Lemasters – RTI International
Title: Developing a Flash Flood Forecasting Protocol to Standardize Flash Flood Forecast Evaluations
Presentation Type:
Abstract: This research is part of the CIROH Hydrologic Prediction Testbed (CHPT) initiative, led by a CIROH funded project at the Colorado School of Mines (CSM) in collaboration with CIROH forecasting projects and external research and operational partners. It aims to define a rigorous, quantitative evaluation protocol for intercomparison and benchmarking of flash flood forecasting methods (lead times 0-6 h), covering the multiple elements (models, methods, datasets) involved in producing forecasts. This includes gathering observations and baseline/reference datasets for evaluation, producing hindcasts for alternative methods, and applying the protocol for comparative assessment. Concurrently, RTI is developing the Tools for Exploratory Evaluation in Hydrologic Research (TEEHR), a framework for storing, processing, and visualizing hydrologic data to assess flash flood forecast skill and performance.
The CHPT will leverage and help configure TEEHR so this protocol moves from concept to clearly defined datasets and reproducible workflows, and will archive and display up to date summaries of evaluation and benchmarking results for the flash flood forecasting protocol on the CHPT website. As it matures, the CHPT will enable the U.S. to quantify and track the current performance of its flash flood forecasting capabilities, enabling evidence-driven decisions regarding the adoption of new forecast elements into operational practice. This presentation will summarize progress to date and next steps.