Authors: Andrew Wood – Colorado School of Mines
Title: Development of a testbed for assessment and benchmarking of hydrologic prediction capabilities
Abstract: A key to the success of CIROH will be its ability to overcome the well-known R2O gap that has hampered the adoption of state-of-the-science modeling, methods and datasets in operational hydrologic forecasting. Another hurdle is the lack of established baselines describing the performance of current forecast capabilities for different types of predictions (e.g., short-range flood forecasting, S2S forecasting). To address these challenges, we are designing a hydrologic forecast testbed – a CIROH research activity and program centered on a hydrologic forecast test system – to support the seamless transition of a variety of critical forecasting capabilities into the National Water Model. The testbed will rigorously assess and benchmark new techniques, models, model elements, workflows and datasets, and enable developers adding to the Nextgen system to refine and advance supporting components of prediction systems targeting distinct objectives (e.g., flash flood prediction, or sub-seasonal to seasonal water supply prediction) from an evidence-driven perspective. It will strongly emphasize several main areas: the overall workflow for probabilistic or ensemble prediction, strategies for developing and/or testing different model configurations, and assessing and/or developing alternative probabilistic meteorological inputs (forcings and forecasts). The effort will assemble and create baselines for US hydrologic forecast state-of-practice performance or skill, allowing researchers to determine, quantitatively, the extent to which any new development in a forecasting system improves forecast skill. The major outcome of this effort will be to put into place a community testbed endeavor that allows for testing and benchmarking of new hydrologic prediction science (models, methods and data, workflows) that can benefit national water modeling and prediction services. This poster gives an overview of this project and reports on activities to date.