Authors: Louise Arnal – Ouranos, Canada; Martyn P. Clark — University of Calgary, Canada; Mark Fresch — National Weather Service; Gi-Hyeon Park, Katie Van Werkhoven — RTI International; Seann Reed — Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center; Nadia Schreiber, Josh Sturtevant, Andy Wood — Colorado School of Mines
Title: Improving Operational Ensemble Hydrologic Forecasting in the USA with NextGen Capabilities
Presentation Type: Lightning Talk
Abstract: Over the past decade, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and River Forecast Centers have developed ensemble hydrological forecasting products for the USA. Recently, NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction proposed the development of a new generation interagency water resources modeling framework called the “Next Generation Water Resources Modeling Framework” or NextGen. NextGen’s flexibility enhances the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) operated by the River Forecast Centers, allowing for refined ensemble hydrological forecasting techniques.
This CIROH project aims to integrate NOAA’s scientific advancements while leveraging HEFS capabilities. Using new NextGen tools, we are identifying and testing cutting-edge methods and datasets to advance the HEFS system, based on retrospective forecasts for approximately 200 watersheds across the USA. Combining the most effective methods from both systems will enhance operations and provide more robust short-term ensemble forecasts for risk-informed decision-making.