Authors: Alessandra Perez, Erfan Goharian – University of South Carolina
Title: Leveraging Hydroclimatic Forecasts and Policy Design for Reservoir Reoperation
Abstract: As climate variability intensifies, managing water resources in reservoir systems becomes increasingly critical. This study explores the integration of advanced hydroclimatic forecasts into reservoir operation policies to enhance water management during variable and extreme weather conditions. By analyzing historical weather data and existing reservoir performance, we identify limitations in current management strategies that fail to utilize dynamic hydroclimatic information effectively. We then propose a new framework for reservoir reoperation, including probabilistic and deterministic models, to predict hydrological inflows. The method involves recalibrating operation rules based on forecasted water availability and demand scenarios, supported by a policy simulation model. Preliminary results demonstrate that integrating forecast-informed reservoir operations (FIRO) can significantly improve water supply reliability and flood control. This approach also offers a flexible management strategy adaptable to future climatic uncertainties, providing a robust basis for policy development and decision-making in reservoir operations. The study contributes to the theoretical understanding of reservoir management under changing hydroclimatic conditions and provides practical guidelines for policymakers and stakeholders involved in water resource management.