Hydrometeorological Prediction Testbed supporting the US National Water Model

A key to the success of CIROH will be its ability to overcome the well-known research-to-operations gap that has hampered the adoption of state-of-the-science modeling, methods and datasets in pragmatic hydrologic prediction operations and applications.  To this end, this project will design and implement a ‘forecast testbed’ – a CIROH research activity centered on hydrologic forecasting – to support the evaluation, selection and adoption of a variety of critical forecasting capabilities for transition into the Nextgen framework supporting the National Water Model.  The testbed will create experimental protocols to rigorously assess and benchmark new techniques, models, model elements, workflows and datasets, and enable developers adding to the Nextgen system to refine and advance supporting components of prediction systems targeting distinct objectives (e.g., flash flood prediction, or sub-seasonal to seasonal water supply prediction) from an evidence-driven perspective.  It will strongly emphasize several main areas:  the overall workflow for probabilistic or ensemble prediction, strategies for developing and/or testing different model configurations, and assessing and/or developing alternative probabilistic meteorological inputs (forcings and forecasts).  At present, there are few if any published benchmarks for US hydrologic forecast state-of-practice performance or skill, which makes it difficult to determine, quantitatively, the extent to which any new development in a forecasting system improves forecast skill.  The testbed project will begin to construct such benchmarks for US hydrologic forecasting performance or skill for a priority set of forecasts:  short-to-medium range river forecasts and S2S forecasts, including water supply forecasting.  Baseline capabilities for assessing performance will draw from current working versions of NWS hydrologic forecasts for these products, including the current NWM and Nextgen capabilities as well as River Forecast Center (RFC) capabilities. The major outcome of this effort will be to establish a CIROH community testbed practice that promotes integrated testing and benchmarking of new hydrologic prediction science (models, methods and data, workflows) that can benefit national water modeling and prediction services.