Research Team: Anne Jefferson, Elizabeth Doran, Bryan Luukinen, Christopher Johns, Lakelyn Taylo, Schuyler DeBree, Sarah Noyes, George Van Houtven, Brian Southwell, Katie van Werkhoven
Insitution: RTI International, The University of Vermont
Start Date: June 1, 2023 | End Date: May 31, 2025
Research Theme:
Rationale. As developers release new flood guidance tools (e.g., National Water Model and flood inundation maps (FIMs)), it is critical to investigate how they will be interpreted and used for action by local stakeholders. Potential end-users for such data likely differ in significant ways from one other and for products to be used effectively, dissemination and presentation must account for a range of technical skill and noisy information landscapes. It is currently unclear how data presented with varying complexity, precision, and utility for decision-making may impact comprehension, trust, and flood safety action across user groups. A firm understanding of end-users is crucial for successful weather-related (e.g., flood forecast) risk communication.
We will address Research Theme 4, Focus Areas 1 and 2, exploring two foundational goals:
- Understand the current process by which local stakeholders receive and act on flood information, including what information they receive, how they receive it, their key information sources, what actions are available to them, and whether they take action.
- Explore how local stakeholders interpret forthcoming, publicly available flood data (e.g., FIM, other new products). Determine how further context and data synthesis can inform communication product design.
Methodology. We will conduct multiple focus groups in four to six communities with recent flood experience to get a sense of how flood information is used for decision-making. Groups will include priority segments of local stakeholders: local officials (e.g., emergency responders, utilities), small businesses, homeowners, and community services (e.g., hospitals, shelters). We will also survey flood-prone communities around the U.S. to determine what processes and information uses are broadly applicable and which might be unique to a particular region, level of resources, etc. In Year 2 we will convene up to six design-thinking sessions with communities to explore how the National Weather Service can further support risk-informed decision-making.
Anticipated Key Outcomes. We will infuse behavioral and communication science into hydrologic research, seeking insights about local stakeholder use of flood data and exploring improvements in flood event communication to promote risk-informed decision-making. This will lay the foundation for understanding adaptive management, public perceptions of climate change, sustainability, and building resilience.
| Scientific Advancement and Dissemination | At least two publications, one per project year At least two conference presentations At least two posts to additional public outlets, one per year |
| Products and Documentation | User personas representing local stakeholder groups Prototype communication products and visual displays to continue testing |
| Broader Impacts | One postdoc involved in project management, recruitment, and execution Two to three junior researchers mentored in interdisciplinary research Data to speak to NOAA’s mission to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, the ocean, and coasts |
Operational Benefit of the Project. This research will guide forecast design and dissemination strategies, enabling local stakeholders to distill information and take efficient and effective action in their communities.