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Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology

MhAST Workshop

Generating Forcing Scenarios for Compound Flood Inundation Mapping

Day 3 Session 2 (1:30 PM)

Presenters:

Dr. Hamed Moftakhari, The University of Alabama
Dr. Soheil Radfar, The University of Alabama

Understanding and mitigating the risks associated with compound flooding requires robust statistical tools and scenario analyses. This workshop provides practical hints for generating compound forcings scenarios for flood inundation mapping using the Multi-hazard Scenario Analysis Toolbox (MhAST)—a Matlab-based user-friendly toolbox designed for joint hazard assessment and return period analysis. Participants will gain theoretical insights into key statistical concepts, such as copula functions, return periods, and dependence structures, which are critical for multivariate analysis. The workshop highlights the importance of considering joint relationships in multi-hazard scenarios compared to univariate scenario selection. It includes a practical case study of compound flooding analysis in Washington, DC, United States, to demonstrate these principles.

Learning Outcomes:

  • Understand theoretical principles of joint hazard assessment and the importance of multivariate scenario analysis.
  • Gain foundational knowledge of key statistical concepts, including copula functions, return periods, correlation, dependence measures, and multivariate probability distributions.
  • Explore the capabilities of MhAST for generating multi-hazard design scenarios and their associated probabilities.
  • Learn to compute joint return periods under various settings (i.e. OR and AND hazard scenarios).
  • Gaining insights towards the importance of considering joint relationships over univariate scenario selection in flood risk analysis.
  • Perform hands-on analysis with MhAST, including parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis.

Prerequisites:

Knowledge:

  • No prior knowledge of compound flooding is assumed. Attendees will be introduced to key concepts during the workshop.
  • Basic familiarity with statistical terminologies is helpful but not mandatory, as essential terms such as copula functions, joint and marginal return periods, correlation, dependence measures, and multivariate probability distributions will be explained.
  • Familiarity with Matlab (basic scripting knowledge is sufficient).

Hardware/Software:

Accounts: